Brazil; Brazil Elections: Bolsonaro and Lula Head to Runoff; Brazil Awards 56 Offshore Oil Blocks; Nearly 70 Brazilian Lawmakers Under Investigation.

Friday, October 9, 2026. Brazil Brazil commands our attention this week as Latin America’s largest economy and one of the region’s most influential political, commercial, and security environments enters a particularly important period. With the country heading toward a consequential presidential runoff later this month, political uncertainty is intersecting with issues that extend far beyond Brazil’s borders. Foreign investors and international businesses are watching potential changes in taxation, regulation, environmental policy, and economic direction, while expatriates and travelers face a changing landscape involving immigration procedures, personal security, and other practical considerations. At the same time, recent Brazilian Federal Police operations provide an important reminder that some of the country’s most significant risks are not confined to traditional street crime. Investigations involving organized crime, arms trafficking, money laundering, ransomware, illegal mining, and suspected criminal infiltration of legitimate businesses and institutions demonstrate the increasingly sophisticated nature of the threats confronting companies and individuals operating in Brazil. For expatriates, international companies, investors, and professionals doing business in the country, understanding Brazil therefore requires looking beyond the headlines. Political developments must be considered alongside corporate risk, cybersecurity, regulatory exposure, personal security, and the integrity of potential business partners and supply chains. In this week’s BM Investigations newsletter, we take a closer look at Brazil—not simply at what is happening, but at why these developments matter to foreigners living, investing, traveling, or conducting business there. From the upcoming election and organized crime to cyber threats, immigration changes, and practical considerations for expatriates, our objective is to provide the context behind the news and identify the issues worth watching. Welcome to this week’s focus: Brazil. Brett Mikkelson Founder, B.M. Investigations, Inc. – Private Investigations in Panama TOP NEWS and TIDBITS: Brazilian Elections: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva Head to a Runoff, with the President Facing a Difficult Comeback The projections for this Sunday’s Brazilian elections were confirmed: incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff on October 25. What was unexpected, however, was Bolsonaro’s clear lead. With 100% of the votes counted, Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% of the valid votes — excluding blank and invalid ballots — while Lula received 45.16%, according to data from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The difference amounts to approximately 2 million votes. Since neither candidate surpassed the 50% of valid votes required, the TSE confirmed the runoff. Although a close second round is expected, “historically, we have never seen a comeback in a second-round election in Brazil,” political analyst Creomar de Souza told BBC News Brasil. “It is a very, very difficult scenario for Lula,” he explained. After the voting results were announced, the president said the outcome was “unexpected” and that he had been convinced he would win in the first round. He stated: “No one but us can offer Brazilian society a future.” Bolsonaro, for his part, said in his first statement that the numbers showed “the end of the era of the Workers’ Party,” led by the president. “I am very happy with the result I have just seen: nearly 56 million Brazilians giving me a vote of confidence for change. That is the message from today: Brazil wants change,” he said. Sunday’s election proceeded normally, according to Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the TSE, during a press conference. Thirteen candidates were seeking Brazil’s presidency on Sunday, but based on the results, it might have seemed as though there were only two. The candidate who received the most votes after Bolsonaro and Lula, writer Augusto Cury, failed to reach 3% of the vote. In addition to choosing the president and vice president for the next four years, Brazilian voters in the country — excluding those living abroad — also voted for members of the Chamber of Deputies, senators, and governors. When the vote count began, Bolsonaro was receiving more than 50% of the vote, but as counting progressed, the gap between the two candidates narrowed. This was partly because the southern states, which tend to favor Bolsonaro, are usually among the first to report results, while votes from Lula’s stronghold in the northeast are generally counted later, according to Reuters. Reactions Argentine President Javier Milei was among the first international leaders to react, congratulating Bolsonaro after the results were announced. “Freedom is advancing in Brazil. Congratulations, dear friend Flávio Bolsonaro, on this historic election against Lula the communist,” he wrote on his X account. Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado praised Brazil’s “exemplary democratic process” and also congratulated Bolsonaro. “Latin Americans want to live with freedom, democracy, prosperity, and justice, and Brazil has a decisive role in the future of our region. Very soon, Venezuela will also move forward on the path to freedom, and we will leave behind, forever, communism, violence, and crime,” she said. Meanwhile, Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella also expressed his support for Bolsonaro during the vote count. “Today my heart is with Brazil. May God have mercy on our brother country as He did with Colombia. Real change means defeating the left,” he wrote on his X account. From Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also congratulated Bolsonaro following Sunday’s result. “Congratulations and good luck in the final,” he said, referring to the October 25 runoff. “I look forward to restoring the extraordinary friendship between Israel and Brazil. My best wishes for your great victory, my friend,” he wrote in a message posted through the official Israeli prime minister’s account. Two Visions for Brazil At the end of the month, Lula will seek to become the first person to govern Brazil four times and thereby continue left-wing policies in Latin America’s largest democracy. If elected, he will also become the oldest president in the country’s history, at age 80. Flávio Bolsonaro is 45 years old and entered politics in 2002. He is also the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to prison for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Their visions for the country