Colombia; Security in Colombia Hits Investment and Growth; Gustavo Petro–Daniel Noboa Dispute Escalates; Ecuador–Colombia Trade Talks Begin.

Friday, April 24, 2026. Colombia: Between Stability and Strain Last week, we focused on Ecuador, a country navigating internal security challenges under President Noboa. This week, we turn to Colombia, where the conversation becomes more complex, and far more consequential for the region. While open conflict between Ecuador and Colombia remains unlikely, the underlying tension between the two reflects something deeper. Political friction between President Daniel Noboa and President Gustavo Petro is not simply diplomatic, it highlights fundamentally different approaches to security, governance, and the management of transnational threats. At the same time, Colombia is entering a critical electoral cycle. With presidential elections scheduled for May 31, 2026, the country faces a highly fragmented political landscape with no clear front-runner. A runoff election is widely expected, reinforcing what many already understand: Colombia is not politically unified, instead it is navigating competing visions of its future. For those less familiar with Colombia’s system, it is worth noting that President Gustavo Petro is not a candidate in this election, not by choice, but by law. Under Colombia’s constitutional framework, presidents are limited to a single four-year term with no immediate re-election. As a result, this election is not about Petro as a candidate, but about the continuation (or rejection) of his policies through those seeking to succeed him. That distinction matters, because while Petro is not on the ballot, his presidency is. This uncertainty is unfolding against the backdrop of President Petro’s “Total Peace” strategy, an ambitious effort to negotiate with armed groups while reshaping Colombia’s long-standing security posture. While the initiative reflects a shift in doctrine, it has also introduced operational ambiguity. Dissident factions, the ELN, and organized criminal groups continue to operate across key regions, often exploiting gaps created during transitional phases of negotiation and enforcement. For those operating in or entering Colombia, this creates a paradox.  The country is not in crisis, but neither is it fully stable.  Its economic resilience, institutional framework, and attractiveness to foreign investment remain intact. Yet, security fragmentation, regulatory unpredictability, and electoral uncertainty introduce layers of risk that cannot be ignored. The takeaway is straightforward:  Colombia is not a “no-go” environment, but it is no longer a “set-and-forget” market. It is a country that demands attention, context, and informed decision-making. Brett Mikkelson Founder, B.M. Investigations, Inc. – Private Investigations in Panama TOP NEWS and TIDBITS: Government and the Ecuadorian–Colombian Chamber of Commerce Agreed to Establish a Working Group The trade situation between Ecuador and Colombia, resulting from the imposition of fees and tariffs by both countries, was analyzed by members of the Ecuadorian–Colombian Chamber of Commerce (CAMECOL) and the Minister of Production, Foreign Trade and Investments, Luis Alberto Jaramillo. According to the binational association, during the meeting—held Wednesday in Quito—the impact of the current tariff situation with Colombia was discussed with Minister Jaramillo. As a result, and according to a CAMECOL publication, a working group was agreed upon for technical follow-up. Additionally, the association emphasized the importance of maintaining security without affecting the strategic commercial relationship. Meanwhile, the Ministry reported that the dialogue focused on exploring opportunities for cooperation and identifying joint initiatives. Ecuador began on February 1 to impose a 30% security surcharge on products imported from Colombia; this increased to 50% as of March 1, and will rise to 100% starting May 1 due to the Colombian government’s lack of implementation of control measures at the northern border. For its part, Colombia imposed a 30% tariff on 73 subcategories of Ecuadorian products starting February 24. However, on February 27, it indicated it was considering increasing the tariff to 50% not only for those subcategories but also for additional products, though that proposal was not finalized. It has now announced that starting May 1, tariffs will increase to 35%, 50%, and 75%. The new draft proposal includes 204 tariff subcategories subject to this three-tier structure. The 75% tariff will apply to the majority—151 subcategories; the 50% tariff to 24 subcategories; and the 35% tariff to 29. Among the main affected products are shrimp, fish, beans, bananas, plantains, rice, palm oil, and cocoa. Last Tuesday, Colombia’s Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism, Diana Morales, indicated that the decree would be signed this week. “It has already passed the Triple A Committee—customs, tariff, and foreign trade matters—it is currently under review, and it is possible that tomorrow it will be finalized, comments and observations reviewed, and then proceed to signing,” the minister told Colombian media. Meanwhile, prior to the meeting between CAMECOL and Minister Jaramillo, in an interview with Ecuavisa, Freddy Cevallos, president of CAMECOL, stated they would request temporary compensation measures from the national government following the impact caused by tariff increases amid the trade dispute with Colombia. Key requests included tax deferrals and support for working capital costs. “We do not want to go against the government’s position; in fact, we respect the president’s argument and background regarding insecurity. We also understand that trade cannot coexist with insecurity; we cannot expand markets if we have to pay extortion fees just to enter a new market or to carry out collections,” Cevallos stated. READ ORIGINAL ARTICLE HERE Security in Colombia Slows Investment and Growth: The Structural Challenge Facing the Economy Security in Colombia has evolved from a temporary issue into a structural constraint on economic development. Rising criminality not only affects public order but directly undermines the country’s competitiveness by increasing business operating costs, distorting markets, and discouraging investment—particularly in the most productive regions. According to recent economic analyses by Corficolombiana, this deterioration has become one of the main factors limiting economic growth. The country faces a more diversified criminal ecosystem, operating with its own economic logic and competing unevenly with the formal sector. In the global context, Colombia ranks among the countries with the highest levels of criminality. It holds second place in the Organized Crime Index, behind Myanmar, and is within the top 10 in terrorism, reaching its worst position since 2013 in 2025. These indicators reflect not only the persistence