Friday, August 14, 2026.
Cuba
Few countries in Latin America and the Caribbean carry the historical, political and emotional weight of Cuba. For more than six decades, the island has stood almost frozen in a geopolitical struggle that began during the Cold War but, remarkably, continues to shape its future today.
In 2026, however, Cuba may be approaching one of the most consequential moments in its modern history. The United States has significantly increased pressure on the Cuban government, and discussions that once seemed largely theoretical, including the possibility of fundamental political change on the island, have moved increasingly into the public conversation. At the same time, Cuba is confronting a profound economic and energy crisis. For years, Venezuela provided the island with heavily subsidized petroleum, helping sustain an economy that could not independently meet its energy requirements. With that lifeline dramatically reduced, fuel shortages, electrical blackouts and economic hardship have exposed just how fragile the Cuban system has become.
Yet Cuba should never be viewed solely through the lens of politics.
It remains one of the most fascinating and beautiful islands in our hemisphere, a country of extraordinary beaches, historic cities, music, architecture, culture and, above all, people whose warmth and resilience have survived generations of political and economic uncertainty. Walking through Havana can sometimes feel like walking through another era, while beyond the capital lies a remarkably diverse island stretching more than 1,200 kilometers across the Caribbean.
Whatever one’s political perspective, the people of Cuba deserve the opportunity to determine a future that offers greater prosperity, stability and opportunity.
Perhaps we are witnessing the beginning of a new chapter. Perhaps change will come gradually, or perhaps events will move considerably faster than anyone expects. But one can hope that someday Cuba will no longer be discussed primarily in terms of sanctions, ideology, shortages and political confrontation.
Instead, perhaps we will simply talk about visiting Havana, walking the Malecón, enjoying its music and food, exploring the countryside, and rediscovering one of the Caribbean’s truly remarkable islands.
This week, we turn our attention to Cuba, an island with an extraordinary past, an uncertain present, and hopefully, a much brighter future.
Brett Mikkelson
Founder, B.M. Investigations, Inc. – Private Investigations in Panama
Cuba Commemorates Fidel Castro’s Centennial with the Presence of His Brother, Raúl Castro
Cuba commemorated this Thursday, August 13, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Fidel Castro (1926–2016) with a political and cultural event at Havana’s Karl Marx Theater, attended by his brother and former president Raúl Castro (2008–2018), as well as relatives of the leader of the Cuban Revolution.
Raúl Castro, who has retired from his official positions and is now described in official terminology as the “leader at the helm of the Cuban Revolution,” was accompanied by President Miguel Díaz-Canel and senior representatives of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC, the country’s only legal political party) and the government, as well as relatives of both brothers, including Fidel Castro’s widow, Dalia Soto del Valle.
During the cultural event, which featured the Cuban children’s theater company La Colmenita, a presentation through images and songs traced the life of the man who served as the Caribbean nation’s president for nearly half a century. Díaz-Canel spoke during the event, highlighting Fidel Castro’s legacy and stating that he dedicated his life “to fighting for all just causes.”
The president said that Castro “lives forever” as a “warrior, rebel and a just [man] (…) of Humanity,” adding that Cuba carries forward his legacy of “independence, revolution, values and the achievements represented by socialism.”
Under these principles, Díaz-Canel said, “we are undertaking a process of economic and social transformations,” referring to a package of 176 reforms approved this June aimed at liberalizing and decentralizing the island’s economy, which has been mired in a deep crisis for more than six years.
Díaz-Canel again criticized the U.S. government, accusing it of being a “fascist regime” that is “tightening the screws” on the Caribbean nation through a “brutal and immoral imperial siege aimed at the extermination of our people.”
The political and cultural event at Havana’s Karl Marx Theater also marked the closing of the First International Colloquium “Fidel: Legacy and Future,” which had been held since August 10 at the capital’s Convention Center and was attended by more than 1,000 Cuban and foreign delegates.
This week on the island has been marked by various activities centered on the figure of Fidel Castro. On Thursday, the centenary of his birth also prompted tributes from countries such as Russia.
On Thursday, hundreds of Russians gathered in front of the statue of the leader of the Cuban Revolution in Moscow. During the event, Communist Party of Russia (CPR) leader Gennady Zyuganov said that “Fidel Castro is a model and an example to follow (…) in these difficult times, to achieve victory over the most evil forces in history.”
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin had sent messages to Raúl Castro and Díaz-Canel in which he described Fidel Castro as a “symbol of freedom, justice and patriotism both for Cubans themselves and for millions of people in different countries around the world.”
Meanwhile, Chinese President and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi Jinping, also sent a congratulatory message to Cuba on the occasion of Castro’s centenary, highlighting his role “in laying the foundations for and promoting” relations between the Caribbean nation and China, which, he said, “have become a model of cooperation among socialist countries.”
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, for his part, expressed gratitude on Wednesday for “the encouragement” Fidel Castro had given to his political career and called for “fraternity and justice to endure amid adversity” for the Cuban people, in a message delivered to Havana by intellectual and theologian Frei Betto.
Cuba’s Largest Blackout Will Affect Up to 69% of the Island at the Same Time
The island has been experiencing a deep energy crisis since mid-2024, which has progressively worsened since January due to the oil blockade imposed by the United States, a measure that the United Nations has described as contrary to international law.
The Electric Union of Cuba (UNE), which operates under the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem), forecasts that during the period of peak demand on Thursday, generation capacity will reach 1,049 megawatts (MW), while maximum demand is expected to reach 3,300 MW.
As a result, the deficit—the difference between supply and demand—will stand at 2,251 MW, while the estimated shortfall—the amount of electricity that will actually be disconnected to prevent uncontrolled blackouts—is expected to reach 2,281 MW.
At present, eight of the country’s sixteen thermoelectric generation units are out of operation due to breakdowns or maintenance work.
The structural problems affecting the thermoelectric plants—which account for 40% of electricity generation and use domestically produced crude oil—are mainly due to obsolescence, as the facilities have been in operation for decades and suffer from a chronic lack of investment.
In addition, the fuel shortage resulting from the U.S. oil blockade has left power-generation engines—which run on diesel and fuel oil—completely shut down, despite this source accounting for another 40% of electricity generation.
The remaining 20% of Cuba’s energy mix comes from natural gas and renewable sources, particularly solar power, which has recently received increased support from China.
In recent weeks, the island’s energy crisis has intensified, with blackouts in Havana lasting more than twenty consecutive hours, leaving only two or three hours of electricity service, while provinces have reported more than two consecutive days without electricity.
Cuba has experienced twelve nationwide blackouts in nearly 24 months, seven of them so far in 2026.
The Cuban government acknowledges that the situation of the island’s National Electric Power System (SEN) is “acute,” “critical,” and “extremely tense,” driven both by the impact of the oil blockade and Washington’s sanctions, as well as by a deeply outdated energy system.
According to estimates, Cuba requires approximately 100,000 barrels of oil per day to meet its energy needs, of which 40,000 barrels come from domestic production.
Implementation of Cuba’s 176 Economic Measures: Official Assessment Contrasts with Independent Monitoring
Gap Between the Official Narrative and Independent Monitoring
Just over one month after Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power approved the package of 176 measures to address the economic crisis, the Cuban government presented an initial assessment of their implementation. During the parliamentary session on July 29, Prime Minister Manuel Marrero stated that 110 of the planned transformations had been implemented between June and July. He also announced that another 26 would take effect between August and September, while the remaining three would be implemented in November (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
However, independent monitoring conducted by elTOQUE, based on provisions published in the Official Gazette, offers a different assessment of the process. With the aim of “monitoring and measuring how and how quickly the Havana regime will implement (or fail to implement) all of the measures,” the outlet developed a dynamic database that classifies each reform according to its implementation status (“Así va la ejecución de las 176 medidas de reforma económica en Cuba,” 2026, July 29).
According to this monitoring, regulatory progress is considerably slower than reported by the Executive. The monitoring identifies 6 measures as implemented, 9 as partially implemented, and 241 pending actions—the result of breaking down the original 176 measures into their various regulatory components to assess their individual implementation. This indicates that most of the transformations still lack sufficient legal backing to be considered fully in force (“Así va la ejecución de las 176 medidas de reforma económica en Cuba,” 2026, July 29).
Statistical Revelations of the Tourism Sector’s Collapse
Beyond the methodological differences regarding the degree of implementation, Marrero’s appearance also revealed some of the key indicators of the crisis facing the country, particularly those confirming the severe deterioration of the tourism sector, historically regarded as a driving force of the Cuban economy (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29):
- Infrastructure closures: 73% of the island’s hotel facilities are currently inactive (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
- Withdrawal of international hotel chains: Seven hotel companies that managed 46% of the country’s hotel rooms have ceased operations (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
- Employment impact: The withdrawal of foreign management companies and hotel closures resulted in the direct loss of employment for 25,000 workers in the sector (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
- Decline in visitor arrivals: In 2025, Cuba received 1,810,663 international visitors, representing an 18% decrease compared with the previous year and pointing to an even sharper contraction during the current period (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
Social Vulnerability and Management of the Energy System
On the social front, the official figure disclosed by the prime minister placed the number of people experiencing the greatest vulnerability in Cuba at 876,522 (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29). This figure differs significantly from assessments by the Cuban Observatory for Human Rights (OCDH), which reported that more than 89% of the Cuban population lives in conditions of extreme poverty (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29). Based on the 8,675,726 inhabitants recorded at the end of 2024 by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), the estimated number of people living in extreme poverty encompasses the majority of the country’s population (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
Regarding the electricity-generation crisis and continuing blackouts, the government presented the expansion of facilities operating outside the National Electric Power System (SEN) through renewable energy sources as a central strategy (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29). According to official information:
- Photovoltaic systems: 125,751 households have reportedly been equipped with solar panels through state-led programs (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
- Fuel imports: Authorization was granted to 200 private-sector actors to directly import fuel (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
Opening of Businesses and New Structures in the Private Economy
Despite repeatedly asserting that the measures do not represent a departure from the socialist model, the government report detailed the approval of unprecedented arrangements for foreign investment and the private sector (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29):
“The first private exchange house is ready to begin operations as a pilot project,” Manuel Marrero announced, without specifying the entity’s owners, the applicable exchange rate, operating conditions, or the formal date on which it would open to the public (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29, para. 5).
Likewise, the National Assembly’s report highlighted the following economic developments (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29):
- Direct hiring of workers: A total of 13 foreign-investment businesses have been granted the authority to directly hire their employees (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
- Joint ventures with SMEs: The first joint venture between a foreign company and a private micro, small, or medium-sized enterprise (MSME) was approved (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
- Wholesale fuel sales: More than 100 non-state actors were authorized to sell fuel on a wholesale basis (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
- Private fuel importation and distribution: The first foreign-investment business dedicated to the importation, distribution, and sale of fuel was approved (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
- Foreign investment in heritage and healthcare areas: The first foreign-capital business in Old Havana was authorized, and the first specially regulated area (“Economic Development Zone”) for medical tourism with 100% foreign capital was established (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
The effectiveness, transparency, and real-world impact of these measures on the daily lives of the Cuban population remain under critical scrutiny, amid prolonged blackouts, inflationary pressures, and persistent social tensions (Cordero Novo, 2026, July 29).
Pete Hegseth Says the United States Has Not Ruled Out a Military Operation Against the Cuban Regime
The U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, stated that Washington has not ruled out military intervention in Cuba and warned Havana about President Donald Trump’s determination to “assert U.S. strategic prerogatives.”
“As I have said before, and I think you have seen what has happened in other cases, all options are on the table, including military options,” the Republican administration official told reporters during a visit to Panama, where he participated in an event organized by the U.S.-backed military coalition against Latin American drug cartels.
Hegseth stressed that the Caribbean island “would do well to pay attention to President Trump’s willingness to assert U.S. strategic prerogatives.” He added that, in his view, “nobody can compare to the United States” and that foreign influence in the hemisphere, referring to China and Russia, has been “quite insignificant.”
Regarding the involvement of international actors, the head of the Department of War said: “The Russians, Cubans, Iranians and Venezuela… The way those countries have approached the United States and the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (A3C) demonstrates that they understand where the balance of power lies, especially in this hemisphere. And that certainly applies to Cuba.”
In his latest public statement regarding Cuba, Trump said that the island is “getting closer” to Washington after “many decades” of estrangement. The statement came just days after the U.S. Treasury Department imposed a new package of sanctions on Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel, his predecessor Raúl Castro, and other senior regime officials.
However, in June, the White House occupant alluded to the possibility of a military operation in Cuba, similar to those carried out in Venezuela or Iran, although he said he maintained a “flexible” position toward Havana. “The difference is that Venezuela has oil, Cuba does not. Cuba has good real estate and a beautiful coastline,” the president said, adding that Cuban authorities are “very eager” to engage in dialogue with Washington.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the country led by dictator Díaz-Canel will move along “an irreversible path toward a very different future” before the end of President Donald Trump’s term, scheduled to conclude on January 20, 2029.
“I am convinced that Cuba, before this administration ends, will be on an irreversible path toward a very different future,” the top U.S. diplomat said Tuesday. Rubio indicated that a “transition” must take place on the island, warning that “you cannot have something standing for 70 years—it takes root—and then think that overnight you are going to pull everything out by the roots and plant something completely new.”
Known for his critical stance toward the Cuban regime, Rubio argued that a secure, stable Cuba aligned with the United States serves U.S. national interests. “Cuba is undoubtedly a priority for us because it is in our national interest,” he emphasized, recalling his “personal connection” to the island.
“For the first time in its history, Cuba lacks two elements on which it had always relied: an external sponsor and the lack of U.S. attention,” Rubio said. According to the Secretary of State, the situation worsened following the January detention of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, a key ally of Havana, in an operation carried out by U.S. forces.
Following the capture, the Trump administration imposed an oil blockade on the Caribbean island. In recent days, Cuba experienced two massive blackouts in less than 24 hours, worsening water shortages, rising prices for basic goods, and the lack of essential services—factors that have increased social discontent with the government of Díaz-Canel. “There is no doubt that this situation is not going to disappear over the next two and a half years,” Rubio concluded.
On the domestic front, the 9.4 million Cubans had an average of two to three hours of electricity on Wednesday, according to the state-run Electric Union (UNE), which warned that the largest blackout of the day would leave 69% of the country without electricity at the same time. Cuba has been facing a severe energy crisis for two years, and regime authorities have acknowledged that the situation of the National Electric Power System (SEN) is “critical.”
Extreme Poverty in Cuba Now Affects 94% of the Population, OCDH Warns in Study
“Extreme poverty in Cuba now affects 94% of the population,” the Cuban Observatory for Human Rights (OCDH) stated Thursday upon publishing its Ninth Study on Social Rights in Cuba, which also found that “disapproval of the government has risen to 95%, three percentage points higher than the previous year.”
The study, presented in Buenos Aires, revealed that “50% of respondents believe that, before the end of the year, a major and favorable change could take place for the Cuban people.” At the same time, “76% want that change to include political and economic transformations,” it added.
The OCDH conducted 1,318 interviews across all provinces of the country, covering 79 municipalities, including the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud. Of those surveyed, 68% reported that their household’s monthly income is below 20,000 Cuban pesos (US$30 at the current exchange rate). “This figure reveals a significant gap between household income and the cost of meeting basic needs, according to independent estimates,” the organization stated.
To calculate the extreme-poverty threshold, the OCDH explained that it “took into account the household’s reported monthly income, its equivalent value in U.S. dollars over the past six months, as well as the benchmark established by the World Bank for this threshold (a personal daily income of less than US$1.90).” Based on these estimates, the organization calculated that “a three-person household would need a monthly income equivalent to US$171 to avoid extreme poverty.”
Beyond income levels, the OCDH found that “blackouts represent the main problem and the highest priority for solutions identified by respondents (70%), followed by the food crisis (52%), the cost of living (45%), public healthcare (health services and medicines, 34%), wages (27%), and insecurity and violence (24%).”
At the same time, the study found that in recent months, “eight out of ten Cubans have stopped eating breakfast, lunch, or dinner” due to a lack of money or food shortages.
Meanwhile, “the regime’s economic and social management is rated negatively by 95%” of respondents, the organization reported, adding that the performance of the Miguel Díaz-Canel and Manuel Marrero Cruz leadership team receives a positive assessment from only 3% of citizens.
“Along these lines, 84% distrust the latest economic measures announced by Havana and believe they will not improve the country’s economic situation, while 6% expect a favorable impact. Seven percent said they did not know, while 3% preferred not to answer,” the organization added.
“These results demonstrate the political and economic exhaustion of the Cuban regime. Its governance is broadly rejected by citizens, and its measures fail to generate confidence. However, it is the Cuban people who bear the burden of the decline, particularly the elderly and those with chronic illnesses,” said Yaxys Cires, Director of Strategies at the OCDH.
“The majority demand for political and economic transformations confirms that Cubans do not want cosmetic changes or new promises, but rather profound change that brings political, economic, and social rights,” he emphasized.
Cires also noted that “the government cannot continue attributing the consequences of its own decisions to external factors. The unproductive model, dependent on other countries, lies at the root of the problem, as do its priorities. While food, medicine, electricity, and decent housing were lacking, resources were available to build luxury hotels controlled by GAESA or to hold international culinary festivals. While there are no ambulances, there are police vehicles and other resources available for repression.”
The OCDH concluded that “the responses reveal the collapse of the country’s infrastructure,” with respondents identifying electricity, telecommunications and internet services, hospitals, roads, and water and sewage systems as the sectors most affected in their respective municipalities and localities.
