Friday, May 29, 2026.
Argentina
Argentina has always held a certain mystique in the eyes of the world. From the bustling avenues of Buenos Aires to the vineyards of Mendoza, from the proud traditions of the asado to the unmistakable passion of its people, Argentina remains a nation defined by resilience, identity, and pride. I have personally visited the country several times over the years and have always been struck not only by its beauty and culture, but by the warmth and loyalty of its people. Once an Argentine calls you a friend, that friendship tends to endure for life (whether you like it or not).
Today, Argentina once again finds itself at the center of international attention, this time under the leadership of President Javier Milei, a man whose wild hair, unapologetic demeanor, libertarian philosophy, and complete disregard for political fashion have made him one of the most recognizable political figures in the world. Whether one agrees with all of his methods or not, there is little doubt that Milei has injected a new sense of urgency, disruption, and accountability into a country long burdened by economic instability, inflation, and political frustration.
There is something uniquely Argentine about this moment. Beneath the headlines and political debates lies a country rich in natural resources, agriculture, energy potential, mining, innovation, and human talent. Argentina has always possessed the ingredients necessary for greatness; the challenge has often been governance, direction, and economic confidence. Many now believe the country may finally be beginning the difficult journey back toward stability and long-term opportunity.
This week’s newsletter takes a closer look at Argentina, its current political and economic landscape, emerging risks and opportunities, and the broader implications for business, investment, and regional stability throughout Latin America. It is a country impossible to ignore, and perhaps now more than ever, a country worth watching closely.
Brett Mikkelson
Fundador, B.M. Investigations, Inc. – Private Investigations in Panama
Under President Milei’s Austerity Measures, Disabled Argentinians Risk Losing Essential Services
Analía Celis, a 34-year-old woman with an intellectual disability and cerebral palsy, cannot walk, but sports therapy has helped relieve her muscle tension. She cannot work, but baking gives her a sense of independence. She struggles to speak, but painting with her peers helps her connect without words.
Now, Argentine President Javier Milei has dismantled, with his trademark chainsaw approach, the specialized therapy programs that for decades have represented a lifeline for Celis and many of the approximately 5 million Argentinians living with disabilities.
In recent months, the government has frozen payments to organizations that provide therapeutic and educational services for people with disabilities. According to advocates and family members, participants have been deprived of carefully designed routines, and key elements of a social safety net once considered strong by regional standards have been dismantled.
“I never imagined we would reach this point, selling our vehicles because we do not have enough money to keep the lights on,” said Martín Lucero, legal representative of the Argentine nonprofit organization Andar, which operates a day center for people with disabilities on the outskirts of Buenos Aires.
Andar has been weakened to the point that it stopped offering round-trip bus transportation to the center two months ago, leaving Celis and dozens of others stranded in the sprawling Buenos Aires suburb of Moreno, where they depended on the organization’s free and customized transportation to attend classes.
“The only solution cannot be to deprive a person of the space they need for their development,” Lucero said. “This is a political decision.”
Since Milei took office at the end of 2023, his austerity agenda has made him an icon of the global conservative backlash against the liberal establishment. Like his allies in the Trump administration, his government has framed cuts to disability programs as part of a reform effort aimed at eliminating fraud and waste within the federal bureaucracy.
A spokesperson for the president did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
A system heading toward collapse
Service providers for people with disabilities in Argentina — including day centers like Andar, residential programs, special education, and vocational training services — operate using revenue received through billing state insurance programs.
The debts of these nonprofit organizations have mounted because of irregular government payments and reimbursement rates kept below the country’s soaring inflation. But the situation worsened six months ago, they say, when the flow of funds stopped completely.
To cut costs, organizations have increasingly reduced staff, delayed salaries, cut food portions, and shortened working hours. There is no official count of how many therapeutic centers have been forced to close, but disability rights organizations estimate that as many as 50 have shut down this year, many of them in Argentina’s rural provinces.
“I want to tell the president to look at us, to really see us, to come meet us,” said Roman Pontecorvo, a 28-year-old man with an intellectual disability who discovered his passion for acting at Andar. “If Andar closes, many of us will be left with nothing. It will be total chaos.”
Andar says that around 30% of the 150 people with disabilities enrolled in its day program can no longer reach the center — a peaceful campus with a soccer field, vegetable garden, and professional kitchen where participants can earn a monthly salary by working for its catering service.
According to therapists, without intervention programs, people with disabilities can rapidly regress.
“She wakes up three or four times every night screaming that she wants to go to the farm,” said Clementina Tabares, Celis’s 74-year-old mother, who now misses her own medical appointments because Celis requires around-the-clock care. Celis spends all day in bed with a blanket covering the window to block the sunlight and loud rock music playing from her phone, occasionally moaning in distress.
“She is isolating herself,” Tabares said. “That scares me.”
Milei delays emergency disability law
According to advocates, there is a simple solution: implementing the law passed last year that declared a state of emergency for people with disabilities. The law increases benefits that have lost 30% of their value because of inflation and guarantees funding for providers at least through December 2026.
But Milei has delayed enforcing the law, arguing that its fiscal impact — approximately 0.35% of gross domestic product — would undermine the budget surplus his government worked hard to achieve, Argentina’s first surplus after decades of deficits.
“Using noble causes, they pass laws that drive the nation into bankruptcy,” Milei said after vetoing the law last year.
Congress overrode his veto. Legal battles over the allocation of funds are ongoing.
In a strong ruling, a federal judge gave the government 72 hours on May 18 to restore frozen payments to providers in compliance with the law, arguing that for people with disabilities, “interrupting treatment causes setbacks in their development.” The government appealed.
Meanwhile, Milei has introduced legislation that would formally dismantle the current state payment system for therapeutic centers, giving private insurance programs and provincial governments the power to negotiate their own rates with providers.
The proposal would also impose new restrictions on who qualifies for benefits, ending subsidies for everyone except those below the poverty line and with disabilities classified as “complete” and “permanent.”
The bill, which has drawn criticism from human rights groups, is awaiting debate in Congress.
High-level bribery allegations overshadow bizarre fraud scandal
Months before billionaire Elon Musk, linked to the short-lived Department of Government Efficiency in the Trump administration, falsely claimed that millions of deceased people had received Social Security checks, Argentine officials alleged an equally surreal scam: that beneficiaries were falsifying medical records to fraudulently obtain disability payments, including, in at least one case, submitting X-rays of an injured dog.
The true scale of these schemes remains unclear. Authorities have not presented evidence of widespread abuse.
However, prosecutors are investigating broader corruption allegations. In leaked recordings last year, former national disability agency director Diego Spagnuolo allegedly described how Karina Milei — the president’s sister and closest adviser — received hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes from pharmaceutical companies seeking public contracts.
Milei denied wrongdoing on behalf of his sister. Amid the urgency of the audits, the government shut down the national disability agency, Andis, firing hundreds of employees and consolidating disability programs under the Ministry of Health.
Few dispute the need for greater transparency. But critics argue that the government appears less interested in improving the system than in dismantling it entirely.
“Dismantling institutions without building alternatives leaves people abandoned,” said Celeste Fernández, co-director of the Civic Association for Equality and Justice in Buenos Aires, which successfully sued the government last year after Andis suspended 140,000 disability checks over suspected fraud.
In most cases, the government later acknowledged, beneficiaries had simply failed to comply with or understand summonses to attend in-person evaluations, often held in offices hundreds of kilometers from their homes.
“The government is not carrying out a serious reform,” Fernández said. “It is simply emptying the system.”
The IMF Executive Board Completes the Second Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Concludes the 2026 Article IV Consultation with Argentina
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the second review of Argentina’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement and concluded the 2026 Article IV Consultation. This marks another milestone under the program, which aims to consolidate disinflation, strengthen external stability, and lay the foundations for stronger and more sustainable private sector-led growth.
Despite a more complex global and domestic environment, the Executive Board assessed that program implementation has remained solid, reflecting prudent policies and adjustments to the policy framework. While the quantitative target for the accumulation of net international reserves (NIR) by the end of December was not met, most key performance criteria and indicative targets were achieved, and corrective measures were implemented to bring reserves closer to the NIR target and further reduce sovereign spreads. The Executive Board welcomed progress on structural reforms and the authorities’ commitment to implementing a balanced policy package consistent with the program’s objectives.
The Board’s decision allows for an immediate disbursement of approximately US$1 billion (SDR 0.8 billion), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to about US$15.8 billion (SDR 11.452 billion). Argentina’s 48-month EFF arrangement, with access of approximately US$21 billion (SDR 15.267 billion, equivalent to 479 percent of quota), was approved on April 11, 2025 (see Press Release No. 25/101).
Following the Executive Board’s discussion on Argentina, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva issued the following statement:
“Argentina’s authorities have continued making steady progress in stabilizing the economy and building a more market-oriented framework under the Extended Fund Facility. Rising political uncertainty in 2025 temporarily affected growth, disinflation, and external stability, but policy adjustments have since been implemented that supported reserve accumulation, renewed disinflation, and strengthened market confidence, despite a more challenging global backdrop. The authorities remain committed to preserving stability through a balanced policy package that advances disinflation while strengthening external sustainability and fostering growth, including ensuring timely and durable access to international markets.
“The authorities are committed to continuing efforts toward achieving an overall fiscal balance through further reductions in energy subsidies, better targeting of social transfers, and restraint in discretionary spending to offset the impact of congressional spending initiatives. Over time, reforms aimed at improving the fairness and efficiency of the tax and pension systems, together with stronger fiscal frameworks at all levels of government, will be essential to maintaining the fiscal anchor while preserving room for priority social spending, which will be critical to further consolidating the impressive reduction in poverty.
“The sustained implementation of the central bank’s foreign exchange purchase program, together with continued exchange rate flexibility, remains essential to decisively rebuilding external reserves and strengthening Argentina’s ability to manage crises. This should be complemented by the implementation of a comprehensive financing strategy to restore timely and durable access to international markets, including refinancing large short-term foreign currency obligations of the public sector and gradually reducing exposure to the IMF.
“The monetary framework must continue evolving to support disinflation and greater exchange rate flexibility. This will require continued efforts to strengthen central bank transparency and communication, as well as measures to further contain interest rate volatility and improve monetary transmission and credit allocation. At the same time, regulatory and supervisory frameworks need to be strengthened to support capital market deepening while containing financial vulnerabilities. Over time, the central bank’s balance sheet and governance framework should continue to improve.
“Progress in deregulating the economy and adopting reform legislation in the fiscal, trade, and labor areas has been impressive. Efforts should continue to create a more competitive and open economy, including by improving the predictability of tax and regulatory frameworks, in order to unlock the potential of Argentina’s strategic sectors in agriculture, energy, mining, and the knowledge economy.”
Given elevated external and domestic risks, agile policymaking and contingency planning remain essential to safeguarding the program’s objectives. Clear policy communication, together with well-targeted social support to mitigate short-term adjustment costs, will be critical to maintaining policy continuity and social backing for Argentina’s reform program.
Executive Board Assessment
Executive Directors broadly agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the overall progress achieved in stabilizing the economy and building a more market-oriented framework under the Extended Fund Facility, which has delivered a sharp decline in annual inflation, the first primary fiscal surplus in years, and significant foreign direct investment announcements. However, Directors noted that program performance was uneven through the end of 2025, with delays in the critical area of rebuilding external reserves. They acknowledged the important subsequent adjustments to the monetary and exchange rate frameworks, which have supported reserve accumulation and strengthened market confidence. Given the remaining vulnerabilities, Directors encouraged the authorities to decisively implement a balanced policy package that supports disinflation while strengthening external stability and sustaining growth, including ensuring timely and durable access to international markets.
Directors praised the authorities’ continued adherence to a strong fiscal framework. They supported the objective of achieving an overall fiscal balance in 2026, underpinned by further reductions in energy subsidies, better targeting of social transfers, and restraint in discretionary spending. Directors underscored the importance of maintaining the fiscal framework over time through improving the fairness and efficiency of tax and pension systems and strengthening fiscal frameworks at all levels of government, while preserving adequate room for priority social spending, which will be essential to safeguarding the notable progress achieved in reducing poverty.
Directors welcomed the central bank’s foreign exchange purchase program and called for its sustained implementation, combined with continued exchange rate flexibility, to decisively rebuild external reserves and strengthen Argentina’s crisis-management capacity. They welcomed the authorities’ multifaceted short-term financing strategy and emphasized the importance of securing timely and durable access to international capital markets to refinance large public sector foreign currency obligations and gradually reduce exposure to the IMF. Directors encouraged the authorities to accelerate reserve purchases and meet their ambition of exceeding this year’s net reserve accumulation target. Good-faith efforts to resolve outstanding claims should continue.
Directors highlighted the need for the monetary framework to continue evolving to further support disinflation and greater exchange rate flexibility. They stressed that this would require greater transparency and communication, including through the regular publication of quarterly reports, as well as efforts to further contain interest rate volatility and improve monetary policy transmission and credit allocation. Directors encouraged the authorities to adopt additional measures to strengthen the central bank’s balance sheet, governance, and mandate, together with measures to further improve the quality and dissemination of inflation data. They underscored the importance of deepening capital markets while containing financial risks, including those arising from currency and maturity mismatches, through improvements in regulatory and supervisory frameworks.
Directors praised the impressive progress in deregulating the economy and adopting reform legislation in the fiscal, trade, and labor areas, reflected in a significant increase in planned foreign direct investment. They encouraged the authorities to deepen reforms aimed at creating a more competitive and open economy and highlighted the importance of strengthening the independence of oversight institutions, ensuring transparency in procurement and privatizations, and improving governance frameworks.
Directors agreed with staff’s assessment that the criteria for exceptional access continue to be met. While noting that the program remains exposed to elevated risks, they welcomed the mitigation measures that have been implemented. Directors emphasized the importance of maintaining strong contingency plans and urged the authorities to implement them promptly should adverse external or domestic risks materialize, in order to safeguard the program’s objectives. They underscored that continued support for the most vulnerable, together with measures to mitigate short-term adjustment costs, will be critical to maintaining social support for Argentina’s reform program.
The next Article IV Consultation with Argentina is expected to take place in accordance with the Executive Board’s decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.
Andrea E. Izquierdo, the Argentine Researcher Seeking to Integrate Indigenous Knowledge into Lithium Mining
“The indigenous communities are not talking about things that are very different from what the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) say; in fact, the SDG guidelines are already embedded in their worldview.” With these words, Argentine biologist Andrea E. Izquierdo (Córdoba, 50) highlights the need for the voices of those living in the Puna — mainly Kolla, Atacameño, and Diaguita indigenous communities — to participate in global public policies that affect their territories.
In a recent scientific study published in Environmental Science & Policy, the researcher and her team explored how integrating local and indigenous knowledge into global sustainability frameworks can improve the assessment of lithium mining impacts. This resource is essential for the development of batteries and renewable energy technologies, and a large portion of the world’s reserves are located in indigenous territories.
Thanks to her work, Izquierdo — a scientist at the Multidisciplinary Institute of Plant Biology (Imbiv, Conicet-UNC) — was recognized as Argentina’s 2026 “National Champion” for the prestigious international Frontiers Planet Prize, which honors transformative research addressing the world’s most critical environmental challenges. Next year, she will compete for the international US$1 million award alongside 25 other global experts.
Izquierdo, who holds a PhD in Biological Sciences specializing in Ecology and Phytogeography and is a researcher at the National University of Córdoba, has spent more than 12 years studying the ecology of high-Andean wetlands in the Argentine Puna.
“Through traveling across these territories, getting to know the communities, and sharing their experiences, we became interested in the socioecological issues of the region,” she explains.
Argentina has consolidated itself as a strategic player in the global lithium market, ranking as the world’s fifth-largest producer in 2024. The latest report from Argentina’s Secretariat of Mining highlights that the country holds 20% of the world’s lithium resources and 13.3% of global reserves. Production is based primarily on brine extraction from salt flats, most of which are located beneath indigenous territories.
Currently, 28 mining companies are conducting exploratory work in the Puna. There are six lithium projects already in production and another 56 in different stages of development. By 2035, exports are expected to exceed US$11 billion, potentially making Argentina the world’s second-largest lithium producer.
Izquierdo’s fieldwork in four communities in Salta, Jujuy, and Catamarca confirmed that local residents possess a systemic understanding of the territory and a unique ability to evaluate the impacts of mining. However, this ancestral knowledge has not been fully integrated into the monitoring and control mechanisms used to assess the environmental and social impacts of lithium mining.
“The main message of this study is that for the energy transition to be just, it must be participatory and respectful of local realities,” Izquierdo says. The communities of the Puna, she adds, are willing to participate in the decision-making processes that affect their lives.
Based on 15 environmental, social, and economic impacts of lithium mining already described in scientific literature, her research developed surveys to analyze the degree to which this knowledge is integrated into global decision-making.
“It is important because the energy transition must not reproduce new forms of ecological degradation or social inequality,” the scientist notes.
Impact on Mental Health
Communities perceive many of the impacts described by science, but they also contribute their own knowledge that is difficult to observe without listening to them. Although they recognize benefits such as job creation and improvements in infrastructure in local towns, they also warn about increased social conflict, wildlife accidents, and the effects on the health of residents.
“What moves me the most is that they talk about changes in mental health. In scientific literature, it is very common to discuss respiratory impacts caused by dust from mining blasts. However, they are referring to depression, stress, anguish, illnesses they never experienced before. I find it deeply sad that this is happening to us as humanity,” Izquierdo says.
In addition, the communities are concerned about declining water availability, irreversible alterations to the landscape, and the gradual abandonment of livestock activities due to changes in routines and customs that, in some ways, blur their identity.
“The impact is immense and occurs at every level. Their way of life is changing to rhythms that are almost urban,” the Argentine researcher concludes.
Argentina Blocks Entry of Three Vessels Due to Ebola Outbreak in Africa
Argentina decided to block the arrival of three merchant vessels coming from Africa due to the Ebola outbreak affecting the region, with the epicenter in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a war is also taking place between the government, rebel groups, and local militias.
The restriction on these ships was ordered by Argentina’s State Intelligence Secretariat (SIDE), targeting vessels sailing under the flags of Greece and Liberia. The ships and their destination ports were not identified by South American authorities.
“The State Intelligence Secretariat (SIDE) reports that, in light of the Ebola outbreak in Africa, and within the framework of coordinated work with agencies that make up the National Intelligence Community and the Ministry of Health, vessels coming from high-risk areas and heading to Argentina were detected. The identification of these movements, based on information gathered by SIDE, made it possible to adopt the necessary preventive measures in a timely manner to protect public health,” the agency said in a statement.
“Thanks to the transformation and professionalization process of the National Intelligence System, the corresponding alerts and protocols were activated early, allowing authorities to anticipate and prevent potential risks to public health,” it added.
The outbreak is in a stage of rapid expansion and involves the Bundibugyo strain, which is spreading quickly through the eastern part of the territory, especially in Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu.
So far, there have been more than 1,000 confirmed cases and 223 deaths within 11 days since the outbreak began, which has also spread to Uganda and South Sudan. The health crisis has worsened due to the inability to reach affected areas because of armed conflicts and attacks on medical centers, as well as the lack of vaccines for the strain.
Mass Consumption Continues to Struggle in Argentina and Has Accumulated a 3.3% Decline in 2026
Mass consumption once again showed signs of weakness in Argentina. According to a report by consulting firm Scentia, mass consumption sales recorded a year-over-year decline of 3.8% in April and have accumulated a 3.3% drop so far in 2026.
The survey reflects that the deterioration in consumption is affecting most commercial channels, although with some exceptions, such as e-commerce.
The report showed that mass consumption has still failed to consolidate a sustained recovery despite the slowdown in inflation.
At the same time, the strong growth of e-commerce indicates a structural change in consumer habits, with a greater migration toward digital channels in search of promotions, financing options, and better prices.
Supermarkets and Wholesalers Among the Hardest Hit
According to the Scentia report, chain supermarkets recorded a year-over-year decline of 4.5% in sales measured by volume in April. Independent self-service stores also posted a 3% decrease.
The wholesale segment suffered another significant contraction, with a 4.5% decline compared to the same month last year.
In the monthly comparison, April also showed a setback compared to March. Total mass consumption fell 4.7%, while supermarkets and wholesalers recorded declines of 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively.
Within the survey, the pharmacy channel managed to remain practically stable year-over-year, with a slight increase of 0.1%.
However, even that segment showed a sharp monthly decline of 9.4% compared to March, demonstrating that the weakening of consumption is affecting nearly all sectors.
E-Commerce Shows Strong Growth
The main exception once again was e-commerce. The online commerce channel recorded a year-over-year increase of 40.4% in April and has accumulated growth of 33.6% so far this year.
The data confirms the consolidation of online shopping as one of the few dynamic segments of consumer spending amid a scenario of lower purchasing power and cautious household spending.
Meanwhile, neighborhood convenience stores grouped under the K+T category showed a year-over-year decline of 4.8% and a 6.6% drop compared to March.
