Friday, April 17, 2026.
Ecuador – Fond Memories
I first stepped onto Ecuadorian soil in 1991. It was my first mission as a Strategic Debriefer outside of Panama, and as a 21-year-old Army interrogator, I couldn’t have been more eager. I was accompanied by our analyst, Jorge Luis Miño, who had been born in Ecuador but joined the Army after his family moved to the United States some 15 years earlier.
From the beginning, Ecuador left an impression. I was fascinated by the food like potato soup with pellets of dried blood, cuy, and a curious emphasis on juice made from tree tomatoes. Quito itself was an experience. The altitude hit me harder than expected; I still remember the ride up the elevator at the Oro Verde, feeling as though I might pass out before reaching my room. A casual attempt to play soccer with locals quickly turned into a lesson in humility, and survival, forcing me into the safer role of goalkeeper. Even something as simple as diving into a swimming pool felt different… the moment my head went under, the sensation was closer to drowning than swimming.
Shovelling a foot of ash from the roofs after a Pichincha eruption, visiting the Mitad del Mundo or simply the “middle of the earth”, the birds of Mindo, trout fishing in Cuenca, and galavanting the entire coastline from Esmeraldas all the way down to Guayaquil. There really hasn’t been anything quite like the environmental diversity of Ecuador.
Over the past three decades, I’ve had the privilege of traveling extensively throughout Ecuador, visiting its major cities and regions. I witnessed firsthand the country’s transition from the sucre to the U.S. dollar between January and September of 2000. Back in the early 1990s, the exchange rate hovered around 2,000 sucres to the dollar, and that same 2,000 sucres could buy you a full breakfast of eggs, sausages, toast, coffee, and juice. One rule, however, was always clear: no ice. Never drink the water, and never trust the ice.
More importantly, Ecuador became more than just a place I worked. Over time, I was welcomed into a family that I still consider my own. I’ve had the honor of serving as a godfather at a wedding and to one of the sons, and I continue to look forward to visiting “mom” whenever the opportunity arises.
Brett Mikkelson
Founder, B.M. Investigations, Inc. – Private Investigations in Panama
TOP NEWS and TIDBITS:
Early Elections in Ecuador Shake the Political Landscape and Squeeze the Opposition
The decision by the National Electoral Council (CNE) to bring forward local elections to this coming November — instead of February 2027 — has forced political parties into a race against time to define candidates, organize primaries, and navigate legal requirements. This scenario particularly affects Revolución Ciudadana, the movement of former president Rafael Correa, which is currently serving a nine-month suspension stemming from a prosecutorial investigation into alleged money laundering involving several of its members.
The CNE justified the early elections based on a report warning of the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon during the first months of next year. At stake are 222 mayoralties, 24 prefectures, five members of the controversial Council for Citizen Participation and Social Control — responsible for appointing key state authorities — and possibly a national referendum.
The decision has raised alarms within Revolución Ciudadana, the main opposition force. The party was suspended for nine months by the Electoral Disputes Tribunal following a request from the prosecutor investigating alleged money laundering involving several of its members. While case details remain confidential, the sanction has a notable timing element: it will be lifted just after the early elections conclude. However, legal obstacles go beyond party status. Its most prominent figures, many seeking reelection, face a critical judicial landscape: Aquiles Álvarez, mayor of Guayaquil, is under three investigations and currently in pretrial detention in a maximum-security prison; meanwhile, the mayors of Quito and Cuenca, along with the prefect of Pichincha, are operating within a narrow margin between their electoral ambitions and potential disqualifying sanctions.
Internally, the movement remains silent. No one is publicly identifying potential candidates or the parties they might align with to secure a place on the ballot. “Because they could go after them and block more political movements,” admits a party member.
The early elections, combined with the temporary ban on the main opposition party, have transformed the race into a marketplace of political labels where ideology has become secondary. A striking example is Lucio Gutiérrez — who led the 2000 coup and governed for two years with Sociedad Patriótica — who has opened his party to candidates from the correísmo. “It’s time to turn the page. We are ready to talk,” he announced on social media.
For analyst Esteban Ron, this phenomenon confirms that parties have devolved into mere electoral vehicles lacking doctrine. “Out of 17 national organizations, 13 are on a yellow card; they need to reach the voting threshold just to avoid disappearing,” he notes. Along the same lines, political scientist Pamela León uses a contemporary analogy: “Political parties have become like Airbnb — more rentable than representative. They meet the signature requirements, but their vote share does not reflect a real support base.” Currently, there are 231 organizations approved by the CNE, although their presence on the final ballot still depends on electoral council review.
In contrast, Pachakutik — the political arm of the indigenous movement — is attempting to capitalize on the electoral environment by leveraging its territorial reach: 53 organizations and more than 10,000 communities. However, internal disputes threaten its cohesion. “Some prioritize individual prominence over the collective,” warns Apawki Castro, a member of the movement.
This lack of unity has been reflected in the National Assembly, where the party has failed to ensure unified voting among its legislators on core principles such as water protection and opposition to mining. By aligning with the government on key issues, several lawmakers were ultimately expelled from the movement, weakening its representation and strength in Congress. Now, under the pressure of the accelerated timeline, they fear that candidates who do not align with their ideology may once again enter their ranks. For this reason, they have avoided naming candidates: Castro maintains that in this environment, “they are not safe from persecution.”
The government’s view differs. For President Daniel Noboa, the change affects his party more, as its political base is weaker in rural coastal areas, where a potential El Niño event would complicate election logistics. “Who benefited from holding elections with water up to their necks? The correísmo and the ‘pachas,’” the president said in a radio interview, adding that “we are ensuring that there is real competition.”
Ecuador Bets on Dialogue: President Anticipates End to Trade Tensions with Colombia
Ecuador’s president, Daniel Noboa, stated that the tariff dispute with Colombia could be resolved after the presidential elections scheduled for May 31 in that country, in which the successor to Gustavo Petro will be elected, according to Xinhua News Agency.
In an interview with Radio Forever in Guayaquil, Noboa said he anticipates a resolution to the impasse under those conditions, noting that he has little “hope” that his counterpart, Gustavo Petro, will respond to Ecuador’s request to strengthen security along the shared border. This situation led Quito to impose a security tariff on imports from Colombia.
“In the case of Colombia, I do not have much hope that (Gustavo) Petro will change or do what he should do, which is to protect his southern border. It is unfortunate because, commercially, Ecuador is in a better position,” the Ecuadorian president stated.
The security tariff imposed on Colombia has increased in stages over a short period, rising from an initial 30 percent in February to 50 percent in March, and later to 100 percent, which will take effect on May 1.
Noboa argued that, through the security tariff, Ecuador seeks “reciprocity,” noting that if the country is “sacrificing jobs” and “industries” by maintaining trade relations with Colombia, then at the very least Colombia must ensure stronger border control.
“It’s as simple as that,” Noboa said, adding that “we are always open to working with Colombia.”
“They are our brothers, they are next door, and we have always had a good relationship. Hopefully, after these elections, we can sit down and reach a long-term solution to this issue we have at the border,” he added.
Amid the trade tensions with Colombia, the Ecuadorian president has repeatedly insisted that the neighboring country is not doing enough to ensure security along the shared border, where, according to local authorities, organized crime groups and illegal armed actors are operating.
Both leaders have exchanged statements through social media, further escalating bilateral tensions, while business sectors have emphasized the need for urgent dialogue as the only viable solution.
In response to Ecuador’s recent decision to raise the security tariff on Colombian imports to 100 percent, announced on April 9, Bogotá reported the following day that it would impose reciprocal tariffs of the same magnitude on Ecuadorian imports.
The Andean Community (CAN), made up of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, has called for an urgent resolution, warning that these measures undermine regional integration and negatively impact both the population and the economies of the two countries.
PowerChina Will Take Over Operation of Coca Codo Sinclair and Invest US$400 Million in Ecuador
Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld announced that the Ecuadorian government has reached an agreement with PowerChina for the company to take over the operation and maintenance of the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant.
The agreement includes an investment of US$400 million by the Chinese company, which will be disbursed through December 2026. The deal was signed alongside the Ministers of Energy, Inés Manzano, and Finance, Sariha Moya.
According to the foreign minister, this was one of the outcomes of the official visit by President Daniel Noboa and his delegation to the Asian country. The government had already announced that Ecuador will receive a total of US$1 billion in investment for energy projects. Of this amount, US$400 million corresponds to the Chinese company and US$600 million to the Spanish firm COX.
PowerChina is the parent company of Sinohydro, which built the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant and is currently involved in an arbitration process initiated by the state holding company Celec, which is seeking compensation for construction-related damages.
The Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant has an installed capacity of 1,500 megawatts. Since its completion, it has faced more than 7,000 structural cracks in its pressure systems, according to reports from the Comptroller General’s Office.
Ecuador’s Parliament Approves Controversial Mining Law Rejected by Indigenous Communities
Ecuador’s National Assembly has approved this Thursday the Organic Law for the Strengthening of Strategic Mining and Energy Sectors, a bill promoted by the government of Daniel Noboa under urgent economic status. The law has sparked strong criticism from indigenous, environmental, and social organizations, which argue that it weakens environmental protections and collective rights.
Approval in the plenary
The Assembly’s plenary approved the bill with 77 votes in favor, despite protests and warnings from indigenous and environmental groups, who have raised concerns about its impact on territories, water resources, and collective rights. The vote took place at Universidad Ecotec in Samborondón, where much of the bill was debated.
The initiative, submitted by the Executive as an urgent bill, reforms several aspects of mining and energy legislation with the stated objective of improving public and private sector management, strengthening fiscal revenues and foreign exchange inflows, and contributing to the State’s fiscal sustainability.
However, the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador and other organizations have rejected the law, arguing that it weakens environmental oversight and puts constitutional rights at risk—particularly by reducing procedures for prior, free, and informed consultation, a right recognized for indigenous peoples and nationalities.
Concerns raised by indigenous leaders
Indigenous leaders such as Leonidas Iza, president of the Confederation of Kichwa Peoples of Ecuarunari, have warned that the legislation threatens water resources, territories, and community rights by eliminating traditional environmental licensing and replacing it with simplified authorizations that weaken preventive controls, especially in sensitive areas.
Iza stated that the law prioritizes extractive interests and transnational capital over the protection of nature and communities, and called on the Assembly to respect the Constitution and the will of the people.
In addition to indigenous organizations, environmental groups, teachers, and other sectors have expressed their rejection of the bill, arguing that it reduces citizen participation, endangers ecosystems, and undermines collective rights such as access to a healthy environment. They have called for broader dialogue before approving reforms of this magnitude.
The approval of this law comes within a broader context of ongoing debates over mining and large-scale extractive projects in Ecuador, where protests and legal challenges related to environmental and territorial rights have already taken place.
The Bioeconomy Consolidates as a Key Pillar of Ecuador’s Economy
The Central Bank of Ecuador presented on April 14, 2026, the results of the Bioeconomy Thematic Account (BTA), a tool that measures the contribution of this sector to the national economy.
Bioeconomy in Ecuador
According to the report, by the end of 2024, the bioeconomy represented 16.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This figure confirms its weight within the country’s productive system, in a year marked by economic contraction.
Bioeconomy refers to the production of goods and services based on the sustainable use of biological resources and their derivatives, including ecosystem services.
It is divided into two levels: direct bioeconomy, which explicitly uses biological resources, and extended bioeconomy, which includes activities that depend on these resources within their value chains, such as manufacturing and services.
Smaller decline than the overall economy
During 2024, the bioeconomy recorded a variation of -0.6%. This decline was smaller compared to the national GDP, which contracted by -1.9%.
This data shows that the sector demonstrated greater resilience compared to other segments of the economy.
A key sector undergoing transformation
Despite the challenging context, the bioeconomy continues to play an important role. The sector stands out for its self-sufficiency and stronger orientation toward international markets, according to the Central Bank.
Additionally, it is advancing toward higher value-added activities and diversifying production. This contributes to a more sustainable economy that is less dependent on a limited number of sectors.
Driven by traditional and innovative activities
The performance of the bioeconomy is driven by the strengthening of sectors such as agriculture and agro-industry, as well as the growth of industries that utilize biological resources.
Together, these factors promote a more integrated and dynamic economy.
A tool for public decision-making
Gustavo Camacho Dávila, President of the Financial and Monetary Policy and Regulation Board, highlighted the value of the BTA.
He noted that this tool enables evidence-based decision-making and helps strengthen public policies aimed at sustainable development.
The Central Bank reiterated its commitment to generating timely and transparent statistical information to better understand the contribution of the bioeconomy to the country.
The measurement of the bioeconomy is based on thematic accounts within the System of National Accounts (SNA 2025), which integrate economic, social, and environmental data to analyze its contribution to sustainability.
Ecuador’s Country Risk Is at One of Its Lowest Levels in Recent Years
Ecuador’s country risk reached one of its lowest levels in recent years, standing at 436 points.
This decline reflects a sustained improvement in market perception regarding the country’s repayment capacity and opens new opportunities for external financing under more favorable conditions.
Country risk indicator and its impact on financing and external debt
Ecuador’s country risk indicator is essentially a financial thermometer that measures global investor confidence in sovereign debt.
A reduction such as the one recorded in April 2026 implies lower interest rates, greater access to international credit, and a more attractive environment for foreign direct investment in strategic sectors.
This trend also responds to structural factors such as the issuance of government bonds and the fulfillment of economic targets agreed with the International Monetary Fund, reinforcing the country’s credibility with multilateral institutions and global markets.
Evolution of the historical decline in country risk
Ecuador’s economy in 2026 shows a significant reduction in country risk compared to levels recorded in 2025, when the indicator exceeded 1,900 points.
The indicator has remained below 500 points for more than three months.
The performance of Ecuador’s international markets has also been influenced by external factors such as fluctuations in oil prices and global geopolitical uncertainty.
