Brett’s Bad Math; Panama is not achieving virus control; Cub Scouts Many Moons Ago

145 active Covid-19 cases are reported in prisons, representing a decrease in the number of patients.

Monday, June 15, 2020

While many still think the Coronavirus is a hoax, myth, over-exaggeration, or whatever, I’ve been trying to report on it the best I could without over-exaggerating my predictions and I’ve been wrong every time.  When Panama was registering roughly 150-200 new cases per day, I predicted that if we open blocks 1 and 2, we’ll see between 400-500 average cases per day by the end of June.  WRONG! Panama was able to pull that off before the end of the month of May.  This last Friday we had 625 new cases for a total of 19,211 and someone asked me which day we would hit 20,000.  

“That’s an easy guess”, I said.  “Sunday night we’ll pass 20,000.”  Nope!  Wrong again!  Panama got to 20,000 in just one more day, not two days with the record 848 cases.  

Panama Record Cases
Panama Record Cases

I’ve constantly underpredicted almost every guess so far and I know that I did it to not sound alarming to the average person.  Well, I’m going to alarm the shit out of you with this next prediction, but I’ll do so with charts, graphs and numbers.  I love math, but I hate it when I’m wrong by underexaggerating my estimates.  

This virus won’t be gone from Panama until 70% (minimum of 65%) of everyone here in Panama gets it.  I hope that’s not another estimate that I’ll be wrong about; I hope it won’t be more.  That means that 3,000,000 people need to get it.  As of today, 21,422 have been detected as having gotten it.  Research in other countries have estimated that this calculation from early on is low by 7x the amount detected.  So, roughly 150,000 people actually have gotten the virus up to today, since reaching Panama in March.  That’s a big guess, but luckily, there is a way to calculate this on some more reliable information from a case study conducted by the Japanese.   This is their flow chart.  The study has a lot of fluffy, scary words in it, so I’m here to cut the fluff and give you the skinny!

Japanese Flowchart
Japanese Flowchart

Basically, Japan evacuated a certain number of people from Wuhan on a chartered flight.  That number of people, just like back in Algebra 101 (you know, that class you never really needed nor would ever use, but Brett is now cramming down your throat), is here represented by the letter “N”.  The number of passengers evacuated was 565.  N = 565  

Upon entry to Japan, Japanese health authorities conducted a prescreen of every passenger which included temperature checks and interviews.  Those who were screened as very probably having the virus were placed into the category “Symptomatic” or “pN”.  Those who did not show signs were considered as Asymptomatic or in this case (1-p)N.  For now, don’t worry so much about what these algebraic terms are.  What’s important to understand is that this was just a pre-screening prior to quarantine and further clinical testing and confirmations.

During this screening, 63 were thought to be symptomatic for a total of 11.2% of the 565 passengers.  (Spoiler Alert: They were wrong on the pre-screening, which isn’t uncommon.)  Obviously, everyone else was placed in the “Asymptomatic” category just to be on the safe side and then everyone was placed on full 30-day quarantine to ensure that they were all well past the infectious period and could be considered cleared to go home.

All passengers were given the COVID laboratory test and of the 63 suspect cases, only 9 actually had the virus (in our algebra formula, these are recognized as = “n”).  Interestingly enough however, of the remaining 502 passengers who showed no symptoms at all, 4 passengers (these = m) were discovered to have the virus.  During the 30 days, none of these 4 ever came down with any symptoms, so they were officially classified as “asymptomatic”.

Now we get to the easy part.  We have all of the information that we need and now we use the Bayes Theorem.  This is the formula used to determine probabilities using pre-determined conditions.  Banks use this theorem all the time to determine the risk of giving out loans.

Buuuuut, I’m just toying with you.  We don’t really have to do that.  What we learned from this experiment, an experiment that was later replicated during other evacuations is that out of 565 people tested, 63 were thought to have the virus and 502 were not.  Of the 63 passengers, 9 had the virus.  Of the 502 without symptoms, 4 more were also sick.  Through a symptoms-only screening, the health officials were only 14% accurate, but they could have just been over-cautious.  It could be that they were only more certain of 20 passengers, but to be on the safe side, sent 43 more to “that side” of their screening process.  The scarier part, however, especially if they were trying to be over-cautious, is that they still missed 4 out of 502 people that never came up with symptoms.  In essence, out of a ground of 564, for every 9 people who get tested positive, there are potentially another 4 out there that will never get tested.  They will never get sick or know that they ever had the virus, but they were infectious and did spread it.  By these numbers, if we take Panama’s numbers of today (21,422), that means there are AT LEAST 9,500 people have been walking around with no symptoms.

Of course, none of these calculations can be taken without a grain of salt just yet.  It’s way too soon and there really isn’t enough information out there because we’re trying to come up with guesstimations way too early in the game.  When the seasonal flu comes around, no one gives us a daily tally on infections or deaths, do they?  Of course not, that would be ludicrous.  They wait until the whole thing is over with and they give us an estimate of infections and deaths.  Yes, an ESTIMATE!  They don’t really know but they can give us rough numbers.  

Another quick calculation is to determine where we’re at, where we need to go and how we’re going to get there.

If we take my first guess of 150,000 in Panama already having been infected either symptomatically or asymptomatically, that means only 3.75% of the population has been infected.  On the low end, we need 65% infected to hopefully stop the virus, (unless we go to full quarantine with no further human to human interaction for a full 30 days).  We still have 61.25% of the population that need to get this damn thing or 2,450,000 people.  Over the last 6 days, we’ve averaged just shy of 700 detected cases per day.  If we keep at that pace of 700 new cases detected per day, for us to reach 2,450,000, and taking in to consideration the 7x factor of actual people infected, it would take us 500 days just to get there.  That’s October 28, 2021.  We shouldn’t lower the amount of daily infections that we can detect, we need to raise those numbers.  But we need to do so with the proper medical infrastructure in place.  Panama authorities have stated that they only had 100 total ICU units available.  That’s WAY too few.  They should have over 500 units available and allow people to get out more. I think Panama is holding out for a vaccine.  A Vaccine that isn’t going to get to us before the end of the year probably.  The bottom line:  This virus isn’t going away anytime soon at any rate.

Here’s some more great information from the archives of The Blue Bird of Happiness School of Wonderful Thoughts.  The “Closed Cases” of COVID19 give one of two results.  Either the subject recovers, or the subject dies.  Of all cases detected in the world (not “all cases”) 9% of the total outcomes worldwide end up in death.  For countries like France, the percentage is 29%.  The good news is that as per cases reported in Panama, the final Closed Cases for us results in only 3% of them being deaths.  So, if you get detected with COVID19, you only have a 3% chance in Panama of dying.  Colombia is 8%, USA is 12% and Brazil is 9%.  For any other country, you can check out the website www.worldmeters.info

TOP NEWS and TIDBITS

Yoli’s Summary

The pandemic globally reaches more than 7 million infected people and more than 420 thousand deaths. But in Panama, as predicted, unfortunately, the outbreak or second wave of infections by Covid-19 has not been long in coming. This is demonstrated by the alarming figures as of June 12, of 19 thousand 211 infections, an increase in positive people and 421 deaths, a few days after the quarantine was eliminated, the restrictions were relaxed and the reopening of block 2 of activities.

It is true that we cannot live in permanent quarantine. But there is a lot of irresponsibility in individual behaviors that are opportunities that the virus takes advantage of. It is observed that a large percentage of the population does not have a culture of discipline, nor respect for biosecurity norms and sanitary protocols. They rushed to the coastal strip, to the supermarkets; Immense rows of cars and people to move inside, many without respecting the physical distance or correct use of the masks.

Although the causes for the outbreak of infections are diverse, it is determined in part by the nature of the virus, but fundamentally, by the culture of social organization, that is, human behavior against the virus: maintaining discipline and respect for precautionary and preventive measures.

Faced with this outbreak, the health authorities have no alternative but to re-impose restrictions on movement, sanitary fences and curfews, as has been done for the provinces of Panama and West Panama, places where the 23 corregimientos with the highest number of people infected. The responsible behavior and citizen discipline of the other provinces will depend on remaining without restrictions and without quarantine.

Covid-19 is a powerful world enemy that is here to stay and will be, as long as there is a person infected in the world, and as long as there is no effective vaccine or treatment to control it. It is important to insist that the non-spread of the virus depends on prudence and discipline in individual behavior.

The author is a lawyer and writer, Mariblanca Staff Wilson

MINISTER COUNSELOR: INCREASE IN COVID-19 CASES IS DUE TO A MASSIVE SEARCH OF CONTACTS

To date, Panama registers more than 20 thousand COVID-19 infections
To date, Panama registers more than 20 thousand COVID-19 infections

The Ministry of Health of Panama (Minsa) reported this weekend a considerable increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19.

Only on June 13, 848 new cases were registered, while this Sunday 627 were reported, exceeding 20 thousand infections.

According to the Minsa, these cases not only correspond to people who were able to become infected towards the end of the opening stage of block 1 of economic activities and the start of block 2, but also to the “aggressive” search for cases in the townships. most affected.

Minsa and CSS will adapt rooms to mobilize patients with COVID-19. Atenógenes Rodríguez

The Minister Counselor for Health Affairs, Eyra Ruiz said that the new strategy consists of increasing tests to detect COVID-19, for the massive tracking of contacts and thus lower the transmission.

In this sense, Ruiz said that in the next few days a million tests will be received to detect COVID-19.

Currently, Ruiz explained, about 2,000 tests are carried out daily and the aim is to double this number to 4,000.

“Citizen responsibility is important, and it is not that the Government is scolding, but we are concerned because until when we are going to be able to resist the increase in cases, and not asymptomatic cases and cases in young people, but people who come to intensive care they get complicated and die, ” said the minister.

Regarding the capacity of the Health system, Ruiz indicated that the Minsa and the Social Security Fund (CSS) reached an agreement for the restructuring of intensive care areas nationwide.

With this, she explained, it seeks to adapt areas that are not being used to mobilize patients with COVID-19.

Nationally, there is a capacity of 160 beds in intensive care to attend the pandemic, she said.

Original article

AUTHORITIES RECOGNIZE FAILURES IN THE VALE DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

The vice minister of agricultural development Carlos Rognoni indicated that the distribution of solidarity bonds and exchanges to Panamanians has been improving, and acknowledges that they have had their failures in delivering these grants to Panamanians.

“We have given bonds to people who do not need it and on the other hand, there are those who need it and it has not reached them. Through the database that we manage with the Ministry of Social Development, this service and the system are being improved so that they really reach those who need it and each time the controls are fine-tuned, ” said the vice minister, to the disagreement of many Panamanians who to date they have not received any help from the government.

He stressed that the system is a tool that is in a process of improvement and urged Panamanians who have not received the digital voucher or who receive it and should not have received it, call on line 140 and make it known in order to correct any situation that is happening.

With the digital voucher through the tools that AIG has, it is possible to monitor how the 80 dollars are being used, which until now have been delivered through the ID.

“The President of the Republic, Laurentino Cortizo last week made an important announcement in which it is established that the solidarity bonus is increased from 80 to 100 balboas and although we know that a relief and probably will not meet the expectation 100%. It is a significant increase of more than 20% of the value that was being given in the bonds, using the personal identity card.”

Rognoni affirmed that to date 1.5 million bags of food have been produced, among which they are made in the Atlapa Convention Center as in the province of Chiriquí and 946 thousand vouchers and digital vouchers have been delivered.

Regarding the criticism that has been seen on social networks about the amount of aid that the President of El Salvador provides to its population, unlike what the Panamanian government provides, he stressed that it has always been stated that what is delivery is a relief and the amount was established based on what the state budget allows and the Panamanian reality, probably other countries have another situation that allows them to deliver it that way.

“On the subject of distribution, speaking of this country, we have been much more efficient and the crowds that we saw on social networks were not caused. We know that it is insufficient in most cases, but we have to be responsible and give that support based on the budgetary reality that we have in Panama, ” said Rognoni.

Original article

MINSA PERFORMS QUICK TESTS OF COVID-19 AT ’24 DE DICIEMBRE’

The Ministry of Health visited houses in the township of 24 de Diciembre, taking “quick samples” that allow determining if a person has COVID19 in approximately 30 minutes. It is planned to apply 200 tests in the township, to then continue in other areas.

In case the tests are positive for COVID, the infected individual and his contacts are followed up. 24 de Diciembre health center has the capacity to perform swabs on people with respiratory symptoms.

Original Article

MINGOB REPORTS 602 RECOVERED INMATES FROM COVID-19

145 active Covid-19 cases are reported in prisons, representing a decrease in the number of patients.
145 active Covid-19 cases are reported in prisons, representing a decrease in the number of patients.

The Government Ministry (Mingob) reported this Saturday, June 13, that in the last 72 hours the number of inmates recovered from the Covid-19 disease is at 602.

While the number of active cases of people deprived of liberty with the disease is 145, a situation that reflects a decrease.

The entity stressed that there is only one inmate hospitalized for the new coronavirus and that the rest of the cases are mild.

According to Mingob, through its General Directorate of the Penitentiary System, contingency and prevention measures continue to be applied due to the pandemic.

The ministry emphasized that once inmates spend the first 14 days they are discharged and then enter a quarantine and recovery phase of an additional 14 days, to later join their respective penitentiary centers.

Original article

MORE THAN 400 HEALTH PROFESSIONALS IN PANAMA COVID-19 INFECTED

COVID-19 has significantly affected the health of health professionals worldwide; in Panama there are currently at least 440 infected, among nurses, doctors and nursing technicians.

This was announced by the Minister of Health, Rosario Turner, who explained that 11% of administrative staff, 17.5% of doctors and 18.9% of nurses, have been infected.

“We must strengthen communication, at this time we have a bed availability of 40%, we are at the limit to provide timely care,” said the minister.

He indicated that despite the fact that Panama occupies position 11 in the number of reported cases, given that every person with fever and cough takes the COVID-19 test, it has been possible to “prevent more than 100,000 people from being infected”.

“We are obliged to look for cases because when they are detected in time, deaths can be avoided … we cannot fall into triumphalism. It is a critical moment for the pandemic in the country, if we have a sustained increase as in the last week, the situation It can be chaotic,” he said.

According to Turner, the ideal would be to perform more than 3,000 tests a day and search for cases.

She added that the country’s success in the midst of the pandemic is not measured by the number of cases, which it considers high, but by the number of preventable deaths.

The minister announced that 100,000 tests for coronavirus will be received this Monday.

To date, Panama has more than 20 thousand COVID-19 cases and 429 deaths. The country has opened two blocks of economic activities, while the rest will depend on hospital capacity, the virus transmission rate and other factors.

Original article

XAVIER SÁEZ LLORENS AFFIRMS THAT LEGAL, ILLEGAL AND VIP SALVOCONDUCTOS, DAMAGED THE QUARANTINE

The infectologist Xavier Sáez Llorens, a member of the Advisory Committee of the Ministry of Health (Minsa) to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, defended the application of the quarantine on Sunday.

Sáez Llorens assured that the “rigorous” confinement prevented the health system from overflowing on the one hand, while on the other the number of cases expected in the worst-case scenario (122 thousand cases) did not occur, as did the death toll (over a thousand).

In the TVN Radar program, the doctor also considered that the “legal, illegal and VIP” safeguards harmed the quarantine, because although there were people who used it for what they should, there were also some who did not meet any of these requirements. and they were on the streets.

At this time, said Sáez Llorens, cases should be sought in the places where they are occurring, but with general help; among which he mentioned groups that are dedicated only to the search of cases, as well as giving him the necessary support so that they can comply with the isolation.

For the specialist, these measures are necessary to avoid that at the end of this month hospitals may exceed their hospital capacity.

Original article

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY INSTALLS EXTRAORDINARY SESSIONS, WILL DISCUSS THE VETO OF THE PROPOSED BILL OF LAW

The National Assembly installed this Monday, June 15, the extraordinary sessions, after they were called by the President of the Republic, Laurentino Cortizo. Meanwhile, the formal discussion should begin tomorrow, Tuesday, June 16.

For this Monday, the Government Commission will carry out an analysis of the presidential veto to make its recommendations.

While the Economy Commission will debate to send its recommendations to the Plenary Assembly.

Cenobia Vargas, president of the Economy Commission, confirmed that among the recommendations will be that the moratorium be extended until December 31 and that it be made clear that the moratorium is only for people who are not receiving a salary.

This Commission was attended by Jorge Almengor, Vice Minister of Finance and Amaury Gutierrez, from the Superintendency of Banks.

On June 11, the president announced on his social networks that he was calling extraordinary sessions to process the veto of the Moratorium Law.

The moratorium project, partially vetoed by Cortizo, sought for the months of March, April, May and which expires on June 30, to benefit Panamanians affected by a decrease in their income or who have terminated their employment contracts, to independent workers. In the Assembly, a series of adjustments are carried out in order to maintain distance and avoid the spread of COVID19.

Original article

EXHAUSTION AND ILLNESS FELT AMONG SANITARY PERSONNEL

Exhausted and sick health personnel is another reality that at this moment stops the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, whose presence in the country was confirmed for the first time on March 9.

Xavier Sáez-Llorens, an infectologist and member of the Advisory Committee of the Ministry of Health (Minsa) to attend to Covid-19, revealed in the Radar program broadcast by TVN that said exhaustion led to an “urgent” meeting last Saturday with the health authorities.

Sáez-Llorens said that the medical and health personnel are exhausted and sick from Covid-19, a situation that, according to his criteria, will force training new doctors, hire the unemployed and even bring foreign doctors to help while the health crisis lasts.

Despite this fatigue, he highlighted the work carried out by medical and health personnel that, he stressed, maintains the country with the lowest case fatality rate in the world, a behavior that in his opinion should be highlighted to motivate health professionals “That they are sacrificing for something.”

For Sáez-Llorens, it is necessary to begin to show the work that is carried out in hospitals, laboratories and other settings to give the best care to those affected by Covid-19, because it is these professionals who are on the front line of care, those who are at risk of contagion.

The exhaustion produced by long working hours since the appearance of Covid-19 is a problem identified by leaders of some associations of health professions, such as the case of nurses. The president of the National Association of Nurses of Panama, Ana Reyes de Serrano, explained, at the time, that fatigue within the nursing staff was already warned in a note to the Minister of Health, Rosario Turner, and the director of the Social Security Fund, Enrique Lau Cortés.

De Serrano explained that, after working 12 consecutive hours for more than 70 days, the nurses began to suffer problems in the muscles, bones and in the urinary system, in addition to contracting the disease.

Regarding the latter, de Serrano indicated that they do not know the number of members of the organization who contracted the disease, because they have not provided them with that figure, despite the fact that they requested it. However, unofficially they manage the figure of about 80 infected nurses. This guild has 6 mi 623 members, of which 5 thousand 400 are active.

For her part, the coordinator of the National Negotiating Medical Commission, Domingo Moreno, explained that the problem of staff exhaustion will not be solved in the short term; on the contrary, it is going to aggravate before the challenge that represents the appearance of more cases.

In the past week, Covid-19 cases increased to an average of 579 per day.

Regarding the hiring of personnel, including foreign professionals, Moreno pointed out that before the pandemic, there was already a deficit in all areas in which health personnel were required to care for the population.

Original article

COMPANIES REQUEST ECONOMIC PLAN; INCOME DROPS

91.6% of companies in the country have seen their income fall, revealed a survey carried out by the Center for Economic Studies of the Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Agriculture of Panama as a result of the paralysis of the economy and to measure the level of impact that the coronavirus crisis has on the business fabric.

In monetary terms, the impact would be $ 539 million only for the 357 large, medium, and small companies that participated in the survey.

This and other business unions, such as the Panamanian Association of Business Executives (Apede), raise the urgency of implementing a national economic plan, which goes beyond the reopening blocks of each activity.

Original article

‘SUCCESSFUL VIRUS CONTROL IS EXTREMELY COMPLEX’: SOSA

The epidemiological week from June 7 to 13 marked the rise of the Covid-19 disease epidemic in the country.

In fact, it became the week with the most cases (4,055), the most diagnostic tests carried out (13,733) and with a considerable number of hospitalized in wards and intensive care units: 509 people in total.

According to experts, if the speed with which the virus spreads before June 30 is not slowed down, the looming scenario is bleak. The population and the health authorities have a great challenge for the next few days.

The last effective reproductive number (Rt) or average value of infections that occur from one case, between May 31 and June 6, reached 1.44 (ideally 1 or less than 1), and that week the number of infections reached 2,986.

Néstor Sosa, an infectologist, former director of the Gorgas Memorial Institute for Health Studies and head of the Infectious Diseases Division of the Department of Internal Medicine of the Hospital of the University of New Mexico, stated in an interview with La Prensa that the successful control of the virus is extremely complex.

What is your opinion of the situation in Panama in the face of the pandemic?

Analyzing the epidemiological curve of cases reported per day in Panama, it is evident that at the end of May an increase in the slope of the curve begins to be seen and this is more pronounced in the last three or four days, when figures higher than the 600 cases per day. Most worryingly, this increase in cases is not only a reflection of an increase in the number of diagnostic tests performed, but hospitalizations and the number of patients entering intensive care are also increasing. As a result, the epidemic in Panama is currently on the rise, and unless the cases are due to only limited outbreaks, it stands to reason that there is significant community transmission.

Is quarantine an effective measure to decrease the speed of virus transmission?

Definitely, if all the people who may be transmitting the virus remain in their homes and are not in contact with other people, the epidemic would stop in a few days. But this is practically impossible to do in modern society.

People with Covid-19 disease are known to transmit the virus about 2 days before symptoms start, and this infectivity lasts for about 7-10 on average. In addition, 40 to 50% of people do not have major symptoms and, despite this, they can transmit the virus. Transmission that occurs from presymptomatic or asymptomatic people is very difficult to detect and avoid.

Consequently, and given the practical difficulty in identifying all infectious people (who infect), health authorities in most countries have used these measures of physical distance and staying at home, with the idea of ​​reducing interaction. close among all people and, in turn, decrease the magnitude of the epidemic. However, these measures have an impact on the economy and on the functioning of societies and are associated with collateral damage that can be as serious as the new coronavirus. There are already studies that warn that situation.

What to do when physical distancing and the strategy of being at home is not sustainable?

It is important to take all possible measures to decrease the magnitude of the epidemic; decrease as much as possible the most serious cases and, in addition, before opening the economy, have a stable situation or a decrease in the number of cases in a sustained manner and for more than 14 days. Second, a great effort must be made to detect and isolate the majority of the infected and their contacts. This implies having the ability to perform a large number of diagnostic tests and equally important to be able to search for the contacts of these infected people and be able to quickly isolate them. Ideally, in less than 2 or 3 days. In practice, this requires an army of case seekers and contacts, the means to conduct these investigations. In some countries, this activity is complemented by the use of applications on smartphones to facilitate searching for contacts using technologies such as bluetooth or GPS.

Once economic activities are resumed, everyone, absolutely all establishments, must analyze the transmission risk derived from their economic activity and must take measures to reduce contagion.

Furthermore, in Panama the control of transmission with public transport is a challenge. The obligatory use of a mask and the frequent cleaning and disinfection of subway cars and buses is important. And limiting the volume of people using vehicles and trains per unit time should be considered if feasible.

What reading do you have that in the country there is a high percentage of positivity in diagnostic tests when the ideal is 10% or less?

Such a high percentage of positives indicates that there is definitely greater transmission of infection in the community and higher incidence. Although it is important to remember that this percentage also reflects who is being tested. If the test is done on a very large segment of the population, especially people without symptoms, the percentage of positivity is lower.

Successful control of Covid-19 transmission, as has been evident in Panama and many other countries, is extremely complex. Until there is an effective vaccine or a collective immunity is achieved, the virus will most likely be circulating in communities and there will be a risk of an increase in the number of cases that collapses the health system and is associated with high mortality. Even if acceptable control is achieved, reintroduction of the virus from a region with high transmission to a controlled area is always possible.

It is evident that as a society we can no longer easily aspire to control or eliminate the virus in the short term and it is important to find a balance between control measures and the functioning of the economy. Logically, preserving the health and lives of the greatest number of people in the midst of a pandemic like this, and avoiding the collapse of hospitals and other health facilities, should be the highest priority.

When is the so-called peak of the epidemic reached?

The transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 does not easily establish when a peak is reached and when the curve is lowered. From the experience of many countries, including Panama, an imperfect implementation of the control measures or a relaxation of these measures is associated with outbreaks of the epidemic. Only countries or cities with extraordinary measures (for example, China, South Korea, Italy, New York), and after several weeks, have achieved partial and fragile control of transmission. Recall that many of the epidemics in all countries started with a handful of cases introduced from elsewhere. A number as small as five infected people in a society without control and prevention measures can produce an epidemic of hundreds or thousands of cases in a few weeks.

The population must be informed that the control measures are not a switch that turns off or on, but rather a dial that is raised and lowered according to the activity of the epidemic.

How do you describe the progress of virus transmission in Panama?

I am somewhat surprised by the behavior of viruses in Panama. Despite the control measures that were implemented early, and despite having a good diagnostic capacity and a very capable technical team working to fight this pandemic, the expected control has not been achieved. I am not in Panama, so I cannot understand or explain the reason for this epidemiological behavior as rigorously as I would like. However, it is logical to assume that there are some deficiencies in the compliance and effectiveness of all the measures implemented. One of the aspects that must be verified is whether an exhaustive and timely investigation has been carried out of the diagnosed cases and their contacts. The prioritization of tests to symptomatic individuals may need to be expanded.

It is possible that the Ministry of Health and the Gorgas Institute require more personnel and resources for these investigations. Another aspect that can influence, as I mentioned previously, is the cooperation and compliance by the population of the measures implemented.

Original article

STATUS UPDATE

PANAMA ACCUMULATES A TOTAL OF 21,422 DETECTED CASES OF INFECTION AND 448 DEATHS BY COVID-19

Coronavirus statistics from Day 1:

Daily COVID-19 Cases

DateCasesDifferencePercentage of Cases
2023/07/23 - 2023/07/2910476963753.5%
2023/07/16 - 2023/07/2210473213214.6%
2023/07/09 - 2023/07/1510470004856.6%
2023/07/02 - 2023/07/0810465156637.8%
2023/06/18 - 2023/07/011045852190910.0%
2023/06/11 - 2023/06/171043943131211.8%
2023/06/04 - 2023/06/101042631130211.1%
2023/05/28 - 2023/06/031041329109911.3%
2023/05/21 - 2023/05/27104023083510.3%
2023/05/14 - 2023/05/2010393957538.9%
2023/05/07 - 2023/05/1310386426647.4%
2023/04/30 - 2023/05/0610379786545.8%
2023/04/03 - 2023/04/2910373245915.3%
2023/04/16 - 2023/04/2210367336334.9%
2023/04/09 - 2023/04/1510361007434.9%
2023/04/02 - 2023/04/081035357627
2023/03/26 - 2023/04/011034730949
2023/03/19 - 2023/03/2510337813123
2023/03/181030658108
2023/03/171030550123
2023/03/161030427112
2023/03/151030315121
2023/03/141030194144
2023/03/13103005043
2023/03/12103000751
2023/03/11102995674
2023/03/10102988286
2023/03/09102979685
2023/03/08102971191
2023/03/07102962090
2023/03/06102953025
2023/03/05102950555
2023/03/04102945065
2023/03/03102938550
2023/03/02102933591
2023/03/01102924473
DIFFERENCE IN NUMBER PUBLISHED BY MINSA1029171-221
2023/02/281029392110
2023/02/27102928231
2023/02/26102925138
2023/02/25102921363
2023/02/24102915066
2023/02/23102908442
2023/02/22102904214
2023/02/21102902838
2023/02/20102899014
2023/02/19102897622
2023/02/18102895453
2023/02/17102890160
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2021/05/24374356235
2021/05/23374121347
2021/05/22373774466
2021/05/21373308508
2021/05/20372800579
2021/05/19372221537
2021/05/18371684539
2021/05/17371145268
2021/05/16370877344
2021/05/15370533490
2021/05/14370043588
2021/05/13369455525
2021/05/12368930562
2021/05/11368368460
2021/05/10367908252
2021/05/09367656386
2021/05/08367270508
2021/05/07366762398
2021/05/06366364389
2021/05/05365975356
2021/05/04365619320
2021/05/03365299195
2021/05/02365104260
2021/05/01364844268
2021/04/30364576358
2021/04/29364218323
2021/04/28363895362
2021/04/27363533368
2021/04/26363165198
2021/04/25362967271
2021/04/24362696338
2021/04/23362358366
2021/04/22361992314
2021/04/21361678359
2021/04/20361319275
2021/04/19361044203
2021/04/18360841244
2021/04/17360597348
2021/04/16360249419
2021//04/15359830314
2021/04/14359516395
2021/04/13359121329
2021/04/12358792181
2021/04/11358611234
2021/04/10358377279
2021/04/09358098394
2021/04/08357704427
2021/04/07357277364
2021/04/06356153357
2021/04/05356556179
2021/04/04356377304
2021/04/03356073223
2021/04/02355850351
2021/04/01355499448
2021/03/31355051447
2021/03/30354604519
2021/03/29354085246
2021/03/28353839342
2021/03/27353497480
2021/03/26353017438
2021/03/25352579497
2021/03/24352082415
2021/03/23351667454
2021/03/22351213222
2021/03/21350991326
2021/03/20350665445
2021/03/19350220715
2021/03/18349505485
2021/03/17349020440
2021/03/16348580425
2021/03/15348155236
2021/03/14347919278
2021/03/13347641415
2021/03/12347226451
2021/03/11346775474
2021/03/10346301542
2021/03/09345759523
2021/03/08345236402
2021/03/07344834357
2021/03/06344477734
2021/03/05343743462
2021/03/04343281540
2021/03/03342741722
2021/03/02342019599
2021/03/01341420505
2021/02/28340915470
2021/02/27340445664
2021/02/26339781398
2021/02/25339383682
2021/02/24338701896
2021/02/23337805718
2021/02/22337087566
2021/02/21336521484
2021/02/20336037698
2021/02/19335339876
2021/02/18334463708
2021/02/17333755504
2021/02/16333251572
2021/02/15332679500
2021/02/14332179487
2021/02/13331692707
2021/02/12330985910
2021/02/11330075708
2021/02/10329367891
2021/02/09328476822
2021/02/08327654563
2021/02/07327091627
2021/02/06326464977
2021/02/05325487998
2021/01/043244891107
2021/02/033233821181
2021/02/023222011098
2021/02/01321103724
2021/01/31320379926
2021/01/303194531200
2021/01/293182531445
2021/01/283168081408
2021/01/273154001566
2021/01/263138341676
2021/01/25312158914
2021/01/243112441393
2021/01/233098512058
2021/01/223077932041
2021/01/213057521975
2021/01/203037772243
2021/01/193015342173
2021/01/182993611342
2021/01/172980191750
2021/01/162962692677
2021/01/152935922307
2021/01/142912852877
2021/01/132884083315
2021/01/122850933740
2021/01/112813532157
2021/01/102791962424
2021/01/092767723735
2021/01/082730373946
2021/01/072690914321
2021/01/062649565186
2021/01/052597703540
2021/01/042562302494
2021/01/032537361972
2021/01/022517642031
2021/01/012497332943
2020/12/312467904046
2020/12/302427444465
2020/12/292382794574
2020/12/282337052348
2020/12/272313572633
2020/12/262287242064
2020/12/252266602986
2020/12/242236743413
2020/12/232202613059
2020/12/222172023164
2020/12/212140381699
2020/12/202123392755
2020/12/192095843274
2020/12/182063103015
2020/12/172032953348
2020/12/161999472960
2020/12/151969872368
2020/12/141946191612
2020/12/131930072422
2020/12/121905852806
2020/12/111877792355
2020/12/101854242477
2020/12/091829771811
2020/12/081811661936
2020/12/071792301511
2020/12/061777191812
2020/12/051759072300
2020/12/041736072388
2020/12/031712191880
2020/12/021693392028
2020/12/011673111505
2020/11/301658061077
2020/11/291647291276
2020/11/281634531709
2020/11/271617441457
2020/11/261602871755
2020/11/251585321602
2020/11/241569301272
2020/11/23155658875
2020/11/221547831206
2020/11/211535771288
2020/11/201522891200
2020/11/191510891256
2020/11/181498331112
2020/11/171487211054
2020/11/161476671014
2020/11/151466531344
2020/11/14145309832
2020/11/131444771125
2020/11/12143,352887
2020/11/11142,4651163
2020/11/10141,302971
2020/11/09140331804
2020/11/081395271021
2020/11/07138506746
2020/11/061377601193
2020/11/05136567543
2020/11/04136024432
2020/11/03135592677
2020/11/02134915579
2020/11/01134336738
2020/10/31133598731
2020/10/30132867822
2020/10/29132045798
2020/10/28131247825
2020/10/27130422671
2020/10/26129751551
2020/10/25129200685
2020/10/24128515649
2020/10/23127866639
2020/10/22127227792
2020/10/21126435696
2020/10/20125739558
2020/10/19125181436
2020/10/18124745638
2020/10/17124107609
2020/10/16123498615
2020/10/15122883755
2020/10/14122128832
2020/10/13121296494
2020/10/12120802489
2020/10/11120313647
2020/10/10119666825
2020/10/09118841787
2020/10/08118,054754
2020/10/07117300698
2020/10/06116602683
2020/10/05115919633
2020/10/04115286633
2020/10/03114653691
2020/10/02113962620
2020/10/01113342747
2020/09/30112595742
2020/09/29111853576
2020/09/28111277722
2020/09/27110555447
2020/09/26110108677
2020/09/25109431705
2020/09/24108726736
2020/09/23107990706
2020/09/22107284474
2020/09/21196810607
2020/09/20106203602
2020/09/19105601722
2020/09/18104879742
2020/09/17104138672
2020/09/16103466634
2020/09/15102838628
2020/09/14102204459
2020/09/13101745704
2020/09/12101041711
2020/09/11100330615
2020/09/1099715673
2020/09/0999042635
2020/09/0898407829
2020/09/0797578535
2020/09/0697043738
2020/09/0596305709
2020/09/0495596686
2020/09/0394914830
2020/09/0294084532
2020/09/0193552570
2020/08/3192982917
2020/08/3092065728
2020/08/2991337713
2020/08/2890624642
2020/08/2789982900
2020/08/2689082701
2020/08/2588381896
2020/08/2487485585
2020/08/23869001420
2020/08/22854801143
2020/08/2184392817
2020/08/2083855842
2020/08/1983754964
2020/08/1882790598
2020/08/1782543603
2020/08/16819401275
2020/08/15806651263
2020/08/1479402956
2020/08/13784461069
2020/08/1277377913
2020/08/11764641115
2020/08/1075394857
2020/08/0974492841
2020/08/08736511091
2020/08/07725601142
2020/08/06714181187
2020/08/0570231807
2020/08/0469424968
2020/08/03684561003
2020/08/02674531070
2020/08/01663831127
2020/07/31652561065
2020/07/3064191922
2020/07/29632691046
2020/07/2862223781
2020/07/27614421146
2020/07/26602961432
2020/07/2558864871
2020/07/24579931176
2020/07/2356817911
2020/07/2255906753
2020/07/2155153727
2020/07/2054426958
2020/07/19534681207
2020/07/1852261853
2020/07/17514081035
2020/07/16503731130
2020/07/15492431147
2020/07/1448096923
2020/07/13471731540
2020/07/12456331301
2020/07/11443321075
2020/07/10432571040
2020/07/0942216965
2020/07/0841251960
2020/07/0740291957
2020/07/06393341185
2020/07/05381481166
2020/07/0436983988
2020/07/0335995758
2020/07/0235237774
2020/07/0134463913
2020/06/3033550765
2020/06/29327851099
2020/06/28316861028
2020/06/2730658753
2020/06/2629905868
2020/06/25290371007
2020/06/2428030716
2020/06/2327314562
2020/06/2226752722
2020/06/2126030808
2020/06/2025222948
2020/06/1924274923
2020/06/1823351754
2020/06/1722597635
2020/06/1621962540
2020/06/1521422736
2020/06/1420686627
2020/06/1320059848
2020/06/1219211625
2020/06/1118586697
2020/06/1017884657
2020/06/0917233379
2020/06/0816854429
2020/06/0716425421
2020/06/0616004541
2020/06/0515463418
2020/06/0415044435
2020/06/0314609514
2020/06/0214095258
2020/06/0113837374
2020/05/3113463445
2020/05/3013018487
2020/05/2912531400
2020/05/2812131 403
2020/05/2711728281
2020/05/2611447264
2020/05/2511183257
2020/05/2410926259
2020/05/2310577156
2020/05/2210267151
2020/05/2110116139
2020/05/209977110
2020/05/199867141
2020/05/189726120
2020/05/179606157
2020/05/169449181
2020/05/159268150
2020/05/149118274
2020/05/138944161
2020/05/128783167
2020/05/118616168
2020/05/108448166
2020/05/098282212
2020/05/088070202
2020/05/077868137
2020/05/067731208
2020/05/057523136
2020/05/047387190
2020/05/037197107
2020/05/027090370
2020/05/016720188
2020/04/306532195
2020/04/296378178
2020/04/286200179
2020/04/276021242
2020/04/265779241
2020/04/255538200
2020/04/245338172
2020/04/235166174
2020/04/224992171
2020/04/214820162
2020/04/204658191
2020/04/194467194
2020/04/18427363
2020/04/174210194
2020/04/164016265
2020/04/153751177
2020/04/143574102
2020/04/13347272
2020/04/123400166
2020/04/113234260
2020/04/102974222
2020/04/092752224
2020/04/082528279
2020/04/072249149
2020/04/062100112
2020/04/051988187
2020/04/041801128
2020/04/031673198
2020/04/021475158
2020/04/011317136
2020/03/311181106
2020/03/30107586
2020/03/2998988
2020/03/28901115
2020/03/27786112
2020/03/26674116
2020/03/25558115
2020/03/2444398
2020/03/2334532
2020/03/2231368
2020/03/2124545
2020/03/2020063
2020/03/1913728
2020/03/1810923
2020/03/178617
2020/03/166914
2020/03/155512
2020/03/14437
2020/03/13369
2020/03/122713
2020/03/11146
2020/03/1087
2020/03/0910
This is a list of the number of cases per day since the first case was discovered in Panama

ENDNOTES

I should be saving this for a Throw Back Thursday, but I’m out of material for the night.  I mean, did you read all of the silly crap that I wrote for the introduction?  Obviously, I was just rambling.  So, here it is, a bit of me when I was a Cub Scout oh so many years ago:

Antigo Journal, Wednesday, February 11, 1981. Page 16
Antigo Journal, Wednesday, February 11, 1981. Page 16
Of course, they spelled my name wrong.  Geez!  It’s my life-long curse.
Of course, they spelled my name wrong. Geez! It’s my life-long curse.

Stay safe…  Stay healthy…  And by all means (especially if you wish to reminisce of a day once past and of friends who’ve since passed over)  STAY HOME!!…